Happy very chilly Tuesday,
Single digits here in the morning in the Northeast. Great for another cup of Colombian Coffee.
When I was growing up in the trade, an old friend loved to remind me “the trend is your friend”, and indeed it was last week though no real violent moves were noted, the market continued its move lower. Breaking 1.1600 meant a test of 1.1100 which we’re doing as we write this. Under 1.1100 is the 1.0900 – 200 day moving average. Break that, and we’ll go to the corrective phase on the first leg up 1.0600 and if that goes, we give it all back at 1.0000.
The Brazilian Real moved out to 4.1922 on Friday continuing its weaker trend.
In the news, Brazil exports reached 36.6 million bags in 2019, up 14.8% vs 2018, and an all-time high, according to Cecafe. Brazil’s global share of exports rose to 31.6% from 29% in 2018. That said, Dec exports fell 25.9% to 2.69 million bags. Most expect Jan and Feb exports to rebound following the recent rally, though stocks in all hands are low currently waiting on the new crop.
Colombian output in 2019 reached 14.8 million bags up 9% from 2018 as exports rose 7% year on year.
Vietnam’s exports for Dec rose 66.8% vs November to 188,246 tons. 2019 as a whole exports declined 11.9% to 1.653 million tons.
Disaggregated COT showed fund sold a total of 6189 lots though they continue very long.
We have some Colombians just in at the port, not yet stripped by Continental, both EP and Supremo, the Supremos are DD certified if that’s important to you. Some fresh HB Guatemala will arrive on Thursday of this week at the port. We have some fresh arrivals of Sidamo Grade 4 in Continental ready for sampling. Nice lots of FTO and RFA Sumatra. Speaking of FTO we have a nice Peru HB, Nicaragua SHG, Guatemala SHB, and just a few bags left from Mexico. We have some really really nice Kenya AA and AB just in as well, and we have samples here ready to send out, and John C would be happy to share his findings if you’d like to hear them.
It’s a short week, we’d love to help you fill in any needs you might have on this cold winter morning.
The Armenia Team