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Good morning all,

It’s a happy Monday for Chief’s nation out there, less so for the ‘Niner faithful (of which our Joe C is one). It was a fun game to watch for us without a rooting interest. Pitchers and catchers report in about 8 days now. Spring is on the way?

More of the same for the coffee market. Large amounts of fund-based selling kept the market on the defensive the entire week and into this morning now. COT issued Friday shows the fund sold a very large amount of their long position, though most believe none have gone short yet, at least the longerterm players. It’s absolutely amazing that the market is about 3 cents away now, from giving the entire rally back, the entire 46 and a half cents. We’ve pointed out the mile posts along the way, all have fallen now except the inception point of the rally – 95.85 is next.

For some, the market is in a good place now, having afforded the opportunity for sales at much better than expected pricing. For exporters around the world, the concern remains will they get all the coffee they’ve bought and subsequently sold throughout the 46-cent rally. The concern is, of course, that some of the coffee might have been sold more than once.

Meantime during the week, strong rains in Brazil in the Zona da Mata and Espirito Santo, even into Minas Gerais causing flooding and loss of life, story needs to be followed. In Colombia, most exporters turned quiet with limited to no offers as the main crop is very well sold and there is some concern that the Mitaca might be a bit delayed. Most offers, when seen, start in May.

Reports we are seeing from Central America are also concerning. Honduras is expected to have a smaller crop than initially expected and differentials have been climbing. They join now Guatemala, Nicaragua and El Salvador all struggling to find answers to problems in production in a market that increasingly doesn’t pay a good return.

Indonesia about to wind down selling of the main crop waiting as well for the second crop in April/May.

We have a few nice lots to highlight here. We have a lovely Colombia EP we graded an 85 and have been getting good feedback from our customers who’ve already sampled it. We’re expecting Colombia to get very tight in the near term. We have some very nice Kenya AA and AB recently into Continental. We have some nice Natural Ethiopia Sidamo, Panama SHB “Indian Baru”, RFA Certified Sumatra Mandheling, FTO’s of Peru, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Sumatra all very nice lots.

We’d love to help in any way we can.

The Armenia Team