Good morning and happy Tuesday to you.
If you watched the Daytona 500 last night you saw a wild finish! Ryan Newman is in our thoughts and prayers this morning.
May C continued to correct back towards the upside resistance. It hit the 21 day MA on Thursday and once through, took on the 200 day MA at 111.30 on Friday. The disaggregated COT showed that the funds had sold a whopping 18,285 lots! Wow!
By Tuesday the market had already started to correct the oversold RSI back above 30 and by the end of the week we were sitting at almost 54. Some move for certain.
Here this morning the macro is still working against a bullish coffee market. The Brazilian Real is out to 4.3480 though we’re not really seeing that translate into more aggressive offers from source. In fact things remain extremely quiet from Brazil and Colombia. Most offers you see are May and June forward.
To keep the bullish sentiment, the May C would have to keep above 1.0600 or so even as we’re correcting here early on Tuesday. We don’t think it’s coffee weighing on the market, more like continued fund selling. Time will tell if they can keep it up.
We have some Colombian Supremo and EP arriving this week after selling the 2 lots we have on the spot. We recommend if you think you need Colombia to add a bit more to your position, really nice lots will be tough to come by until the Mitaca is in full swing. We have some Viet Robusta in Continental now if that’s your kind of thing. PNG Sigri estate on the water will arrive end of March. As always we have some lovely FTO Sumatra, Nicaragua, Mexico and a really nice Peru that just landed. In addition some specialty grade Panama “Indian Baru”, and some really nice Kenya AA and AB (come get some before we use it all for home).
How can we help today?
The Armenia Team