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Good morning,

Wash your hands, keep your hands away from your face, especially your eyes and mouth, try to find an N95 certified mask that fits appropriately….

Last week was an interesting week of trading. The coffee market went sideways to lower during the week, only to correct quickly on Friday and bring the market back into bullish territory. The disaggregated COT showed the funds didn’t do much of anything by Tuesday though surely some of the action on Friday and perhaps even this morning is generated by them.

The macro is the main attraction at the moment. Novel coronavirus, COVID-19 which has paralyzed most of China for weeks now, is starting to move with some seriousness into other countries as well. South Korea and Italy are just the latest to be hit hard by the virus. Large gatherings, trade shows and events like the Venice Carnival are being canceled. There are even some concerns about the Tokyo Olympic games being voiced. The WHO has an interesting white paper on Covid-19 at: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

No doubt remains that the spread of the virus will have economic impact around the globe and markets are starting to react. The Dow Jones average here for the USA stock market is expected to fall over 900 points (over 3%) on the opening and commodity markets are feeling traders belief that demand across all of the world will be down, as people in general avoid public assembly even of the type like going to the movies, or a restaurant.

As far as coffee is concerned, lower prices don’t help bring coffee to the market. Both Brazil and Colombia have serious gaps between the end of the last crops and the movement of the new. In spite of a very weak Real, diffs are not really changing in Brazil as there’s no coffee to sell nearby. Colombian diffs remain firm and it’s impossible to find quick shipment if you don’t already have it.

We’re here to help you if we can. We have some Colombia EP arrived last week waiting on Continental to bring them to the warehouse. Our new crop Café Lumbus Colombia is also in waiting for pick up. Colombia Supremos arrive Mar 5th . We have some Brazil 2/3 scr 17/18 arriving 2/25, and RFA 2/3 arriving on Mar 8th . Guatemala HB EP arrive Feb 29th and we get some fresh PNG from Sigri on March 27th . Available lots include FTO lots from Sumatra, Guatemala, Mexico, and Nicaragua. We still have a few bags of Panama SHB Indian Baru, Natural Sidamo Gr 4. Some really nice Kenya AA, and an RFA Certified Sumatra Mandheling.

How can we help today?

The Armenia Team