Good morning all,
We hope our Monday message finds you with a delicious cup of coffee in your hands as you read this.
We live in interesting times, that’s been confirmed over the last 2 weeks. Bullish signs in the coffee market, such as limited availability of washed mild coffees, slowing and delayed shipments, have met with a macro atmosphere of falling stock markets, declining bond yields, and large currency fluctuations. The net result for our market is a bit bi-polar, sending strong bull signals at one moment, and then quickly reversing sentiment and order flow. The COT showed funds squaring up their positions with nearly equal amounts of longs and shorts in the market.
Origins are not doing much, though there was some notable selling once the market came over 1.2000 in May last week. It’s still very hard to find pricing on nearby Colombia or Brazils unless you’re lucky enough to know a trader who already has a commitment in their books that they can offer. Most of Central America is in a similar situation, with crops nearly complete and not much extra to sell, the market now anxiously waits on the crop in Brazil, the Mitaca in Colombia, and the crop in Peru.
Colombia advised they produced 1.001 million bags of coffee in the month of Feb, down from 1.106 million bags last year. Jan/Feb 2020 production is then 2.051 million bags down from 2.402 million bags the year prior. For the coffee year, Oct 19/Feb 20 production is then 6.606 million bags up from 6.071 in the same period one year prior. Exports in Feb 20 were 1.079 million bags down from 1.246 a year prior, 2.144 million bags Jan/Feb 20 vs 2.412 Jan/Feb 19 and 5.935 million bags Oct 19/Feb 20 vs 5.986 million in the year prior.
We have some nice coffees just arrived or about to arrive. We have a lot of Supremos that arrived on the 6th and another arriving on the 12th . Brazil RFA 2/3 mtgb arriving on 3/8. Hard Bean Guatemala will arrive on 3/12, and some PNG Sigri Estate arriving on the 19th . We have our usual assortment of lovely coffees sitting in Continental waiting on your interest, you just have to ask your trader, or check the update that comes with this message. We’d love to do some business with you today!
The Armenia Team