We continue to live life in the time of Covid-19.
The market continued it’s sideways progression. We’ll move to speaking about July now with May’s first notice day this Wednesday, April 22nd. The range from about the 200-day ma 11450 to the highs just over 12100 continues for another week. Volume remains depressed over all and demand seems limited to nearby/spot parcels for customers mostly in the grocery stores, where most of the demand is occurring right now. Trading seems to run out of interest at either end of the range and has trouble therefore extending the ranges. Disaggregated COT for trading up to last Tuesday, showed funds did not do much at all, net/net about 1000 lots longer to an already long position. There were large drawdowns in certified stocks again this week, though the May/July switch continue to move out again ending the week at -150.
Macros still in large state of flux as we look around the world and see what the global pandemic is doing to demand of all things right now. Oil has been particularly hurt. It took far too long to bridge differences between producers and how much to stem supply and by the time they did, it didn’t nearly make up for the demand destruction shelter in place orders are having around the world. They are literally running out of places to store the oil at this time. This is going to have enormous effect on economies around the world including the USA.
It’s that time of year, where pictures of a beautiful Brazil crop start to make their rounds of the trade. We’re getting closer now to the harvest and eventual shipment of the new crop. Meantime, things are still very quiet in Colombia. We were concerned that we were not going to be able to get to the early shipments of the Mitaca and that’s still the case. Most exporters are being very cautious, offering only what they have promised to their milling facilities. Supremos remain in very tight supply, Excelso seems a little easier to get at the moment. Centrals remain quiet having sold a large portion of this crop already.
We have some nice new PNG Sigri Estate AA and PB’s just into the warehouse, along with some really nice Kenya AA and AB. New crop Tarrazu are also now in the warehouse ready to sample and ship. Please have a look at the offer list that accompanies this comment and see if there is anything you might like to talk to your trader about.
We know that this is a difficult time and we want to be of help if we can.
Your friends at Armenia