We hope our message finds you safe and doing as well as can be expected. This morning’s coffee is a very nice PNG and one we have for sale if you’d like to join us!
More of the same in the coffee market. The global nature of the pandemic has countries all over the world working hard to manage work, with distancing and stay at home orders. Early sessions, which frequently set the tone for the day, have had reduced volumes and have been easier to influence.
Macros have played a large part in the C market. Both the Brazil Real and the Colombian Peso have seen pronounced periods of weakness recently, and we believe that has resulted in some origin selling. The disaggregated COT as of last Tuesday showed that funds added just more than 3000 lots short, net/net, as shorter and medium-term funds pushed their point of view. Trade has been the best buyer, though as we said last week roasters have been cautious and do not chase the market higher.
After working to push the market lower, it appeared some of the shorter term players felt the market had extended as much as it was going to and the built-up roaster buying underneath was not worth continuing to push and so, a book squaring rally at the end of the week ensued. So far today, the market has held those gains. The new medium-term fun shorts will likely head to the exit just above 114 but the really serious overhead resistance is still lurking above 120.00. Underlying support at 10900, 10600 more important at 10300.
Much of the USA is starting to dip its toes into the cautious re-open recommended by the CDC, with that comes the hope that we’ll return to a more “normal” demand pattern. It will take much more time to go back to any semblance of normalcy however.
We’ll watch the market up here to see if there comes to it, sufficient buying to warrant yet another test of the upper ranges.
We have some nice RFA Brazil 2/3 in Continental now, in addition to some Colombian Excelso EP both nice and fresh. We’ll have some Colombia Supremo leaving in the last days of May so figure in the warehouse in the 2nd week of June. New Tarrazu are in store as are new PNG from Sigri. We also have FTO Colombia and a washed Yirga 1 that are from women run Coops, both are recently in the warehouse. Some nice fresh Mandheling, a really nice Kenya AB join our usual stalwarts just waiting for you to try.
Please let us know how we can help you today
Your friends at Armenia