Good morning,
We hope this Monday finds you well and safe. Here in the Northeast we had a beautiful, typical Spring weekend. The trees, flowers and greenery overall are coming back. We’re opening the windows letting the fresh air flow.
Last week was a sideways week in a lot of ways, and we continued to work inside at 10500 to 11250 range. The disaggregated COT showed funds added about 200 lots of longs as of Tuesday’s trading, so they did not do much either. Averages are neutral to pointing down at this moment thought continued sideways trading will just bring them closer together and the next move would be up. RSI is neutral as well in the 40’s.
Stocks in all hands in the USA was up a eye-catching 494,299 bags but part of that is that the port of Savannah and it’s 187,287 bags were added to the report. Still, the number is up about 300,000 bags overall and many of the newer, major ports like Charleston, Norfolk, Baltimore, Houston, and Seattle were all up, lending credence that roasters in those areas have seen major declines in their business – leading to increases in warehouse stocks.
The USA has started to reopen businesses last week, and to a more major extent, will do so even more this week. Hopefully, that will kick start not only the economy, but outside the home coffee consumption, which has taken a major hit during the pandemic.
Macro factors still mostly negative. Colombian and Brazilian currencies largely offsetting declines in the C market.
Overall, we see the market continuing to be range bound unless something happens.
New arrivals include some new RFA Brazils and Colombian Excelso EP in Continental. NC Tarrazu as well. Next Colombia Supremos we have will ship on May 24th. They join our usual FTO and conventional Sumatra Mandheling, we have 2 bags of Kenya AA left, PNG Sigri AA and Peaberry, Panama SHB, and we have some Vietnam Scr 16 Washed/Polished if you use them.
We’re here to help, please let us know if we can
Your friends at Armenia