Happy Monday to our friends,
I was so young when I was born
My eyes could not yet see
And by the time of my first dawn
Somebody holding me they said
I welcome you to Crackerbox Palace
We’ve been expecting you
You bring such joy in Crackerbox Palace
No matter where you roam know our love is true.
• Crackerbox Palace, George Harrison
More on this in a moment, but it’s the reason we haven’t spoken in two weeks.
In the meantime, it’s been an interesting time. The market corrected the move from it’s 90.05 lows to 108.60 high in Sept back to 96.50. We’re not sure how the Fibonacci’s felt about this, but the market after a day of consolidation exploded upwards from 98.50 and we were again off to the races. Stronger Brazilian Real kept those producers away for the most part during this time.
As we awoke this morning reports of colder weather coming close if not to the Brazil coffee area at least Parana and Sul de Minas. We’ll share with you what we just heard from Somar:
“The week begins with dry and hot weather in the main coffee areas of Brazil, but from the middle of the week, the advance of a cold front should cause rain and sharp decline in temperature. The most significant drop in thermometers is forecast for the period between Friday and the weekend. The strongest cold will be recorded on Saturday, but it is on Sunday that the high-pressure area is expected to reach Southern Minas and the risk of frost is forecast for the coffee in Parana, Baixa Mogiana in Sao Paulo and more points of southern Minas Gerais. Although there is this risk of frost, most producing areas will not be affected by the cold.”
Seems its ever thus doesn’t it? Cold weather waits for holidays and long weekends to bring the most uncertainty, or so it seems to those of us who’ve had a few of these to watch. Memories of the last real weather event bring us back to this period of time in the year 1994, so this weather will have folk’s attention. Frost happen this time of year (if they happen at all). This we know.
We have a gap this morning 110.50 to 111.15 so far. Market has backed down from the highs, perhaps as folks get more information from other forecasters. We’d expect a little volatility in any case, during this little week.
A reminder we have our July 4th holiday on Thursday of this week, and we expect it will be very quiet on Friday as well, but you’re probably going to want to be near a market screen in any case, just to see what happens. Funds are short about 36K lots, it would be the kind of rocket fuel we haven’t really had in previous instances of frost.
That said, it’s been 24 years since the last one, so it doesn’t happen often. Stay tuned. Our Kenya container has arrived in Continental Warehouse! The team hopes to cup them on Tuesday. Yum!
FTO Sumatra arrive on the 5th. Brazil 2/3 screen 17/18 arrive on the 3rd. Colombia Excelso on the 11th.
We just got in a very nice lot of RFA Colombia EP. They join Costa Rica Tarrazu La Pastora, Guatemala Antigua Pastoral, New Guinea AA from Sigri, a few bags left of our Panama Don Vincente are left as well. FTO’s we still have some Nics, Honduras, and Mexican over at Continental as well.
We’ve also a few bags now of Vietnam Washed/Polished Robusta over at Continental. We’re here to help, you just need to let us know how we can do that for you.
Oh, and about the little ditty on the top. Please join us in welcoming Giorgio Alfonso Coniglio to our team. Happy baby and Mommy are doing just fine and Daddy Joe as well! Like frosts, we haven’t had a new addition in over 20 years here at Armenia – long past time don’t you think?
The Armenia Team