Good morning and happy Monday,
Another interesting week in coffee. The week started with the market near the lows, under 1.0000 and looking like fund pressure was going to continue to press the market lower. But that’s not what happened. Almost as if the funds collectively understood that Friday was a holiday and the time of the
year and the long weekend with colder temps expected in the Brazil coffee regions, meant that they might have been a bit too short at over 60,000 lots gross. The next few days saw some short covering which got more aggressive as we approached the holiday. Owing to that holiday, we didn’t get the commitment of traders report, so it’s hard to say what happened, and of course that would only have been as of Tuesday, much of the covering happened on Wednesday and Thursday.
This morning sees the market in a different light. Having gotten through the long weekend with no troubles at all, and prospects for moderating weather over the next few days, funds are selling again, and it has the market under pressure, again.
With the early week’s strength, the 5 day moving average had crossed the 21 day on Tuesday, which no doubt helped get some of the shorter term guys out. But the bias is still on a very large Brazil crop
keeping the market in check. The real is stronger this morning so that’s not helping sellers any. The lows today bring the market back below the 5 day MA and concern for the market to cross again this time on the downside is very real.
Here in the USA, we have a mixed bag as far as the pandemic is concerned. More and more, states continue to progress along the path to re-opening. This should help consumption overall as folks try to find themselves back on a “normal” track will they go back to old habits of consumption? Places like restaurants and diners sure hope so. The numbers of folks testing positive for the disease keeps going up and 7 states saw their highest numbers during this week. That will moderate enthusiasm.
We’re pleased to report we have some Supremos in Continental ready to sample and ship. Some nice fresh Tarrazu just went into store as well. We’re ready if you are. Back from the restful holiday celebrating the founding of this great nation (speaking of which, did you see Hamilton over the
Please let us know if we can be of help today
The Armenia Team