Good morning,

Wishing you a lovely summer morning with a cup of your favorite beverage in hand. As we write this, we have a bright Colombia with good acidity, bright lemony notes, good body, a hint of dark chocolate in the back end…

It been hot here in the northeast and if things continue as the have to this point, the weatherman told us this morning this could be the hottest July on record. 

We read a story the other day that cold brew continues to grow in popularity here in the USA and we believe it, many in our group love a cold brew all year round.  Use of natural Ethiopia has seen a likewise jump in popularity and is a popular ingredient in cold brew in general.   We have some really nice natural Yigas on the spot in NY and some Sidamo on the way. 

Interesting week for the market last week.  For the first 4 days the summer doldrums took hold with the range 96.xx to 98.xx on all 4 days.  Then on Friday the market broke out of its range and settled above 1.00, likely on spec based buying as the market had become stagnant and they likely got signals to lighten up shorts.  Overall, the disaggregated COT showed funds sold another 1800 lots until Tuesday of last week, so that number is likely already negated with Friday’s action.  Net/Net funds are 24,776 lots short but 59,320 lots gross.  A break above 104.00 is needed to get funds to worry about the trend, probably need a close above there as well.

Reports that despite a lower pace of imports, stocks in all hands rose 3.6% in June, a number higher than the traditional pace for the time of year.

While the EU continued to take steps to reduce restrictions made during their Covid response, others, including the USA continue to struggle to contain the virus.  More than 20 USA states continued to see a rise in cases and some like California and Texas, reversed some measures previous made to loosen restrictions.  Southern states like Florida and Texas continue see troubling spikes in case loads that are putting large burdens on their hospitals.  Coffee has been working in this light trying to find ways to safely open shops and increase the ability to serve their customers in ways that keep all safe.  There have been some real innovative responses and customers are responding.  We saw some encouraging news about vaccine study results this morning and we’re rooting for that as the best answer to literally what ails us.  We started to see some of our customers look forward to 2021 and their needs there, very encouraging to us as well.

It’s been interesting that during the pandemic, which coincided as the Colombian Mitaca comes to market, there’s been no real reductions in pricing from Colombia.  Many exporters have stopped offering prompt shipments as they are simply not able to buy coffee at prices their customers want to pay, and exporters tell us there are good prices being paid in the interior which means pricing isn’t coming down any time soon.  This is contrary to Brazil who has been an aggressive seller recently, especially as their own currency has been very volatile.

We have some very nice deliveries of Supremos (which happen to also be DD certified, if that means anything to you) in Continental ready to go.  Fresh Tarrazu also available.  We have some Ethiopia Natural Sidamo arriving this week.  They join our Panama SHB, PNG Sigri Estate, Sumatra Mandheling staples.  Please check out the offer list that accompanies this posting.

Finally – perhaps you read or heard that Guatemala will leave the ICO effective October 1, 2020.  We were curious as I am sure you are, what’s going to happen with things like bag markings and certificates of origin, all of which comes from the ICO.

This is what our agent told us late Friday:

“Please see below information regarding your concerns about Guatemala leaving the ICO:

• The same documents/certificates/bag markings remains the same until September 30, 2020
• Guatemala officially leaves the ICO as of October 1, 2020

As of October 1, 2020:

• Number “11” (ICO country number for Guatemala) will not be used anymore on documents and bag marking. ANACAFE informs it will probably be replaced by the letters “GUA”. The exporter number and lot number will remain the same as before. For example, a FEDECOCAGUA shipment will read: GUA-30-347

• ANACAFE will continue issuing certificates of origin, which authenticity and validity will be backed by Guatemala´s Ministry of Economy.”

Now, this is only going to happen from Oct 1 – so this could be subject to change without notice but that is the answer to those questions at this time.

It’s the start of a new week, we’d love to help if we could.

All the best

The Armenia Team