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07-27-20 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Monday,

Did you catch any baseball over the weekend?  Opening days are always fun and we really enjoyed welcoming baseball back all over the country.  They are the “boys of summer” for a reason, and especially in these challenging times, it was good to get away if only for a short time and watch some baseball. 

As always, we hope our message finds you and your families safe and doing well.

Last week the market finally broke out of it’s sideways range, though Monday and Tuesday were still sideways action, it marked a change.  The disaggregated COT found that funds bought a total of 2450+ lots during the period.  Additionally, macro changes brought dollar weakness and the 2 major coffee currencies were stronger against the dollar, taking some of that selling away from the market.   Wednesday, who’s action was not included in that COT report, showed some of the quicker funds giving up on the short and buying a bit more aggressively and we finally broke through resistance above 105 and ran stops near there and higher and we haven’t looked back.  Quicker averages crossed giving some traders the signal to buy. 

In Colombia, the Mitaca is coming to an end.  The main crop picking will start again in early September.

Next major number is the 200-day moving average currently just below 113.50, that would take us into a congestion area in the mid 114’s.  Breaking that would bring us to another major congestion in the low to mid 120’s.

Nothing has really changed here in the areas that matter.  We’re still combating the pandemic and what that means for our economy in general and coffee in specific.  Roasters really working hard to bring coffee to people where they can access it, this has been especially tough for folks in diners, shops and restaurants. 

We read a really interesting story in the NY Times yesterday on the effect the virus is having on Midtown Manhattan.  We’ll share it here:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/26/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-time-life-building.html 

It’s an interesting portrait of a major part of the City, struggling with this pandemic and the damage it has caused and continues to levy.

We’ve had some very nice Colombia Supremos into Continental.   A fresh, new lot of Ethiopian Sidamo Naturals and fresh Tarrazu in the warehouse now. 

Our full list of available coffees accompanies this report.   Please have a look and let us know if there is anything we can do to help.

All the best

The Armenia Team