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08-04-20 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Monday to you,

The market exploded again to the upside to end the week.  Having broken overhead support around 10500 the market found fund shorts taking back their positions in size.   Trading for the last COT from July 22nd to the 28th saw the market go from a low of 10125 to a high of 11160.  The disaggregated COT report showed short funds covered 15,158 lots while long funds added 1062 lots as well.  All that buying was the fuel the market needed to get through overhead resistance and origin selling. 

The days after the report watched the Sept break the 200-day moving average (about 11350) on Thursday which again brought in fund based buying and we blew through previous congestion areas.  So next week’s COT report should show another period of short funds squaring up, and probably even some adds to the long side.

The RSI on Friday closed at 75.46 indicating some profit taking was inevitable and we think that’s what we’re seeing this morning with the dip from the 11940 high made on Friday. 

Macro picture probably helped coffee as money went into Gold and other commodities last week.  Gold made its largest monthly gain in over 8 years while the dollar fell, sparking inflation concerns.  Brazils Real ended the week near 5.15 best value for the Real in some time. 

We have some very nice DD certified and not certified Colombia Supremos in the warehouse over the last few days.  We’ve cupped them and are happy to share our cupping results with you just ask your trader.  New crop Tarrazu Crire and La Pastora now in Continental as well as some fresh Natural Sidamo. 

We’d love to help if we can.

All the best The Armenia Team