Good morning and happy Monday,
We had a short week lead by the Monday holiday that saw the market trade mostly sideways in limited action, not unexpected, very seasonal as we transition from summer to fall. Some might just consider this consolidation of the strong move lower on the leg from 114.00 to the recent low of 93.25 in Dec. This type of consolidation is good in that it brings the shorter term averages closer and gives the market a chance to attract some buying from shorter term players if we could mount a bit of a rally, a bit of a “catch 22” where some buying could beget more buying. Just needs a spark.
Reports at the end of the week show spec over 50,000 lots short, a big number, but it’s been bigger, and unless we can change a bit of the momentum, likely they will continue to add, continuing to provide pressure until it doesn’t.
Outside macro factors playing both sides lately. Notable moves in the Brazilian Real which had been as wide as 4.17 recently is “back” to just under 4.06 this morning. We have not seen this craziness translate into extremely aggressive offers from origin. Both Brazil and Colombia remain relatively quiet for the week. Where we see this is in pricing of existing contracts limiting market rallies.
It’s our view that the market remains under pressure and we could see lower prices on the C. That’s leading to problems sourcing replacements of coffees that are refusing to follow the C lower.
We’ve just had our Guatemala FTO arrive waiting on it to be stripped. FTO Colombia will arrive this week (the 11th). We’ll have one lot of Sidamo Gr 3 which we bought because we loved the offer sample, ETA on 9/23. We’ll also have RFA Certified Sumatra Mandheling and RFA Certified Colombia arrive this week. The FTO’s join our fine lots from Nicaragua, Honduras, Mexico and Sumatra. We have some nice conventional Sumatra Mandhelings that just went into Continental, they join our Kenya AA and AB, New Guinea Sigri AA, Panama SHB “Indian Baru”, Costa Rica Tarrazu “La Pastora”, Guatemala Antigua “Pastoral” and SHB EP and some nice Brazil Microlot coffees as well as some RFA.
How can we help you today?
The Armenia Team