« back to blog

09-14-20 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning,

We’ve had a series of lovely fall like days here in the Northeast. As we transition from Summer to Fall, some folks refer to this as “pumpkin spice season”.

Meantime our thoughts are fixed on the West Coast and our friends across the California, Washington and Oregon region where fires are raging the types of which we’ve not seen. We have you in our prayers and hope you are doing what’s necessary to stay safe. 2020 has been some year!

Friday was the expiry of October serial options which expired in good size. The 13000 strike proved to be the magnet price as the market do-se-do’d on either side of the strike.

As expected, the disaggregated commitment of traders report showed fund buying. Longs added 3854 lots and are now long 59375 lots while shorts also bought back 2283 lots and are now short 10925 lots for a net of 48450. The number is getting larger, though still not up to the 55K lots or so they got short on the way to the lows.

After extending the upside in the early part of the week, the market used Wednesday and Thursday to consolidate. This had the effect of bringing the technical movement indicators like the RSI back under “over-bought” conditions.

This morning we see good erosion of the market without the options to keep it supported. Volume is good for a move like this.

We make the 21-day moving average to be important from here, currently standing at 12550 or so. A close below should motivate some of the recent longs to exit. Holding that could bring back attempts at the upper range we reported last week.

ICE Stocks continue to decrease to just over 1.1 million bags of coffee. Reports are that Brazils will be/are on the way. In the face of the selling this morning, the Dec/Mar switch is back out to 125 points as we write this.

We have some RFA Colombia that cupped really well in Continental. Some very nice Colombia Supremo also just in. Please check our offer list that accompanies this message to see if there are any coffees, we can sample to you.

All the best,
The Armenia Team