Another “pumpkin spice” weekend here in the Northeast. Mornings are chilly, leaves are starting to change. Coffee choices go from iced to hot …
Monday saw a break out of the recent uptrend. Tuesday gapped open lower but slowly came back and closed near unchanged, perhaps giving longs a false sense of security. The rest of the week saw continued long liquidation as the market passed through the 21 day MA (around 12500) and the 200 day MA (then around 11600) all important points to trend watchers, like us.
Issued in the middle of the week, the stocks in all hands USA from the Green Coffee Association showed stocks down just about 309,000 bags. Stocks in most major destinations were lower. ICE stocks were at their lowest levels of the year on Friday at 1,109,341 total bags in all hands.
The disaggregated COT for trading as of Tuesday Sept 15th showed funds added in the week prior, but their momentum definitely slowed as they neared the outer range of net position, we see them comfortable with, generally speaking. Funds were 62733 lots long (+3357), 10902 lots short (-23) so net/net long 51831 (+3380) lots. We’re expecting that to come down some with the next report.
Technically speaking we see the market headed lower now having broken important support levels. Next support should be somewhere around 10400. First overhead resistance is where previous support was so 11600 and 12500.
We’d love to help you if we can. Please have a look at the offer list attached with this blog post and see if there’s anything there we can send you a sample of. If you don’t see something there you need, ask you trader for help especially if your need is for a future delivery.
All the best,
The Armenia Team