Last Monday, the market made a marginal new high, just below the 13000 resistance, where the market completely ran out of the steam that took it higher. The next 3 days saw the market correct downwards, back towards 12000 support which also held.
With an assist from expiring serial options, the market staged a bit of a bounce on Friday, and this morning it’s looking like a DCB. Back under pressure the market is moving lower again today below 12000 but there’s good roaster based support here.
The dollar is stronger this morning meaning the macro is assisting the move lower.
The disaggregated COT issued on Friday for trading as of Tuesday Jan 5th showed that spec bought 2302 lots now 42,372 lots long, and sold 2336 lots now 20,315 lots short for a net of 22,057 lots net long just 34 lots less long than the week before.
Technically the market is on the defensive under 12000 support as we write this and having the 5 and 21 day moving averages cross to the down side last Thursday. Next underlying support is down around 11500 where the 200 day moving average rests at the moment. There might also be some initial support waiting around 11700 where the market based during the last correction before moving higher.
There is still talk that the next Brazil crop is going to be compromised by bad weather that will not go away and there will be buying as the market works lower.
We have some nice Ethiopian Natural Yirgacheffe Gr 1 in Grainpro bags that arrived on Jan 4th that we’re waiting on Continental to pick up and strip into the warehouse. We bought this coffee because we really liked the pre-shipment sample. One half the container is already sold, if this is of interest to you, asking about it now will assure you can get some. There is still some lovely Colombia Supremo, Costa Rica Tarrazu, and some recently arrived Sumatra Mandheling to taste as well, if you’re interested please
let us know.
All the best,
The Armenia Team