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1-30-2023 Armenia Coffee Report

Happy Monday,

We heard on the radio that this is currently the longest stretch without measurable snowfall in Central Park, going into the winter. Still, it’s fairly chilly and a nice warm cup is in order. Last week we cupped the PNG Sigri B’s and this morning we have it in our common pot. Yum.

The market continued its steady rise higher as funds were light buyers and the heavier selling stopped. As we said last week a move through 16000, which the market gave us, would take us on a ride to try 17495 resistance and it looks like that’s where we’re headed as we write this.

The front switch narrowed some trading at even, an indication of tight supplies here and around the world. Brazil and Colombia were a bit more aggressive in their selling last week, but likely no one would call the trades “bargains”. Both the Brazilian Real and the Colombian Peso were strong (currently at 5.09592 and 4558.5 respectively) which was not helping.

The commitment of traders report issued on Friday Jan 27 for trading as of Tuesday Jan 24 showed the short fund taking a pause from their aggressive selling of the past month or so. In fact they were buyers of 3,121 lots and still stand at a whopping 59,824 lots short. Long fund bought a smaller amount, 799 lots and now stand at 19,804 lots. Trade was the seller; origin was a bit more aggressive doing fixing last week.

There was not much else in the news last week. On the technical side, short fund has taken on a very large position and it’s going to be interesting to watch them unwind it. Support in the market back at 16000 and upside resistance stands as before at 174.95 and then the lower 180’s. We’re watching the RSI which stands at 63 this morning meaning it can still easily support more buying coming in, despite the lack of any meaningful consolidation lately.

Our mixed box of Colombia has arrived but Is not yet stripped by Continental. If you’d like some nice fresh Colombia Supremo or Excelso, as your trader these two go pretty quickly.

How can we help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team