Good Monday Happy New Year,
A quick report today.
On the first trading day of the new year, the market worked early to try and make new highs, and it did, but it couldn’t hold, and subsequent squaring took the market to negative levels.
The most recent holiday trading was generally a little more enthusiastic than usual with good volumes trading, and therefore expanded ranges, especially as last Thursday’s trading saw specs painting a nice year end closing for themselves.
ICE coffee stocks continued to build, mostly with Brazils to a total 1,419,902 by year’s end. Of those 374.271 bags were Brazils, most of them showing up in the last 2 months. Currently there are 137,962 bags pending grading, we’re sure most of those are Brazils.
On a macro level the US Dollar remains weak, helping fuel higher prices as it’s keeping origin selling from coming into the higher market as they can’t get the return they are expecting. As we go into the new year, expectations that the coming Brazil crop (June 2021 and forward) will be decreased owing to poor rains over recent months. The fact that rain has finally come still has folks believing that the damage is already done and that we will have to use the excess from this crop, to get us through with the next crop. What that means is the June 2022 crop will be extremely critical if folks
are right, and we’ll fight to get to it.
As vaccines start to flow all around the world, we’re looking for the chance to see what the “new normal” will be for 2021, and we understand better how “living in interesting times” is considered a curse.
We’re here to help if we can.
All the best,
The Armenia Team