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10-16-2023 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning,
Happy Monday! It is a brisk partly cloudy fresh fall start to our morning here. Leaves are changing and coffee is abandoning the ice and adding the heat. We are indulging in some lovely Ethiopia Yirgacheffe here on the desk, which I might add we have some left on the spot sheet if you would like to join us.
Can you say “polar opposite” one week to the next! The week of 10/2 we ended with a new 28-month low. Last week we ended up reaching a three-week high! Tuesday the market put in a positive daily reversal with the weekly chart showing the same.

COT as of Tuesday October 10th, released Friday October 13th showed long fund sold 1,011 lots to stand at 31,312 and short fund sold 985 lots to stand at 55,718 lots short.

ICE certified stocks fell slightly to 440,773 bags, 2,240 Brazil’s are pending grading. That number is made up of 277,881 from Honduras and 139,635 from Brazil.

The Brazilian Real continues to weaken on the week out to 5.0897, US interest rates are still not helping. The Colombia Peso was also weaker at 4231.38.

Rabobank’s recent report lowered its world coffee production estimate for 23/24 to 172.6 million bags, which many reports would indicate is in line with worldwide demand.

December contracts support is at 149.20, with resistance at 155.65 /155.70 / 158.75.

We have some fresh arrivals in warehouse we would be happy to sample. Just arrived from Colombia we have Supremo, Excelso, and a bright FTO from a women co-op all cupping nicely. We also have an Organic Ethiopia Yirgacheffe from our friends Dumerso also another lovely women co-op. 1 lot of FTO Peru from our preferred shipper to compliment the fresh arrivals, let us know how we can help.

All the best,
The Armenia Team