Good morning and happy Monday to you,
Fall colors abound here in the Northeast and the mornings are crisp making it tough to get out of bed without our favorite morning motivator, a good cup of coffee. Hope you’re enjoying one too as you read our Monday thoughts about the week that was.
The week prior ended on a strong note with spec-based buying. Monday was a lightly traded day but extended the range a little bit while Brazil was working to make reforms to its pension system. As work progressed and it appeared progress was being made, the market rallied on Tuesday and broke key resistance previously identified around .9800 in Dec. Interesting that the moves were announced late Tuesday afternoon, and Wednesday morning the Real moved towards 4.00, a 2-3% move on the currency, but as happens so many times it was buy the rumor and sell the news in the coffee market. Wednesday followed an inside day and Thursday the market dropped back below resistance, only to be bought at the end of the week again by short term spec and the market closed with a new high for the corrective move.
The next important numbers, if the market wants to continue higher is 1.0290 the interim high from where the market started it trek towards the contract low. About 1.0400 in Dec is the 200-day MA. We said last week the 200 day seemed a mile away, it’s a little closer now sentiment wise.
For the week funds went from just over 68K short to just over 64K a net change of 4k lots bought net/net.
It was noted that stocks in Japan rose, and in so doing echoes Europe and North America, as consumer based stocks have been a continued weight on the overall health of the market, and the ability of origin to ask and get, better differentials into the falling market.
Meantime we also note that exports in Brazil were reduced, a reflection of this year’s lower crop. Reports that exporters in general are much less aggressively offering currently, even forward positions.
As the new crop comes into Colombia, talk of increased instances of broca being seen and is worrisome, at this early point. Hopes are that it improves over time.
We have a container of Ethiopia Sidamo Grade 4 just arrived into Continental, and a fresh FTO Peru just arrived not yet arrived into the warehouse. We have some really nice FTO lots from Colombia, Honduras, Indonesia, Nicaragua and Guatemala, all in Continental ready to sample or deliver. In addition to conventional Sumatra (and RFA), Antigua, Tarrazu, Kenya, and a few bags of PNG Sigri Estate.
Our goal is to be helpful on this fine Monday morning. How can we help you today?