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10-31-2022 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Halloween. (BOO!)

It’s very foggy here in Totowa, just a bit chilly, good start for a Halloween Monday. Still, it’s supposed to be yet another wonderful Fall Day here. We’ve really had a proper Fall here in the Northeast this year and we love it. Yet another cup of that really nice Colombian we told you about last week. We have a few bags available if you’d like to join us.

Another incredible week on the C market. Started the week off in the 190’s and ended in the
160’s. Technicals we follow all blown out of whack. The 9 period RSI was down to 8.11 on Friday, and it’s not that we haven’t seen moves like this before, but it usually follows something tangible, we don’t know what that would be here.

What we found out from the COT is that fund selling was again, the motivation for the move. Long funds sold 1827 lots and now are 21,645 long while short funds added 6363 lots and now stand at 24,729 lots short, as big as their short position has been in a long while. Trade again was the offset. This was as of Tuesday and does not include the trading from Wed to Friday which also was down on likely fund selling meaning the numbers are likely bigger than this.

Continued macro pressures are probably in the mix for motivation here with expectations the Fed will again raise interest rates 75 points when they meet, meaning inflation is a big concern here in the USA. Weather has been better in Colombia and Brazil. Presidential Election in Brazil is over with Lula da Silva winning a close run off election.

Brazilian Real stands at 5.3400 a little weaker than last week, Colombian Peso is 4833.3 a little stronger.

ICE stocks are again as low as they have been this year at 385,465 but there are now 56,649 bags pending certification.

We’re expecting the market to make a major correction back to at least 190 if not 200. There are still troubles in the coffee market that have not been solved, appearances on price to the contrary.

How can we be of help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team