Chilly fall Monday morning, frost on the car as we get started today, perfect for a nice FTO Sumatra hot.
Last week was dominated by expiring Dec options. Early in the week the market opened lower and ran through stops generated by 20000 options, giving us the low for the week at just under 20000 (19960) and from there the market steadily ran stops all the way back from 20000 to 22000 in Dec by
Friday. Volumes we large, aided by fund exiting Dec and rolling into March.
Commitment of traders report is delayed until today owing to the Veteran’s day holiday. We’re expecting funds to have added longs and roasters to have fallen further behind.
Also interesting, C stocks were down every day last week ending the week at 1,795,845 that’s down 53,656 bags from the week before, of which Brazil is now down to 927,514.
Brazil announced that they exported 3.4 million bags in October, a volume 23.8% lower than the same month last year. Again Brazil cited logistical problems in getting coffee out. Our own anecdotal experiences confirm this is the case. It’s even hard to find empty containers for the shippers at this time. Lines that were reliable in spite of the troubles are less so now. Difficulties remain in most coffee exporting countries as well it’s not just Brazil.
We were talking here about the market today, prices rising, spreads dramatically narrowing. It’s trying to find coffee and it wants you to know that.
Bali Kintamani arrives on/about Dec 3rd. Fresh new crop coffee shipped in grainpros. RFA natural Sidamo have arrived, not yet stripped. We have RFA Colombia, Brazil, Guatemala and Honduras in the warehouse.
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All the best,
The Armenia Team