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11-16-20 Armenia Coffee Report

It’s a happy Autumn Monday here in the Northeast. We’re having typical fall weather here, a little rainy, a little chilly. Perfect for a blend of PNG AA and Sumatra, hot.

Interesting week for the market. Weather challenges remain, both in Brazil with seasonal rains (or lack thereof), and Hurricane ETA which hit the Central American countries really hard. On Tuesday we got confirmation of a change in direction with the 5 day moving average crossing over the 21 day and the market moves quickly to the 10900 resistance. We thought we’d make a quick trip to the next resistance at the 200 day MA around 11250. But it quickly stalled and stayed put for most of the rest of the week. Finally, with a new Hurricane (IOTA) heading to the same path as ETA in Central America, the market was able to test, but so far not break, that key resistance.

As above Hurricane IOTA is headed straight to the same path as Hurricane ETA, especially Nicaragua, who along with Honduras and Guatemala got hit really hard and are preparing for another major hit. We have our friends down there in our thoughts and prayers.

Because of the late in the week holiday (Veterans day) we will only get the commitment of traders report this afternoon, but we’ll share another number with you just for fun. Certified stocks continue to climb as Brasils start to arrive, now 117,192 bags here, with more undoubtedly coming.

What the market does now with 11250 will likely dictate the next 10 cents or so to the market. We’d expect stops just above that level.

Next week is Thanksgiving week here in the USA. We are very thankful for your friendship and your support. It seems especially important to say after a year like we’ve just been through. Let’s hope 2021 brings us more opportunity to get together and share a great cup of coffee with you. Please note our office is closed Thursday and we’ll have very limited support on Friday – with most warehouses closed both days it would be better if you do your shipping before if you can.

Have a great Thanksgiving friends.

All the best,
The Armenia Team