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11-23-20 Armenia Coffee Report

Good Monday morning,

This week, the USA traditionally pauses to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday. Like so many things this year, it’s going to be much different than we are used to.

One thing is certain. We are indeed thankful for your business and most importantly, your support. 2020 will long be remembered for all the challenges this year threw before us, and we certainly had our share of challenges, personally and in our business. That you continue to support us gives us what we need to keep going. And so, we are thankful for you, and promise to keep you and your families in our thoughts and prayers during Thanksgiving, and the days ahead.

Interesting market this past week. Traders came in on Monday with weather a dominant feature. Hurricane Iota ripped through Central America, the 2nd on in quick succession, adding to the devastation Hurricane Eta had brought just days before. We did get some rain in the Brazilian coffee areas and some parts of Minas were well covered, but not all. The market blasted through key resistance areas and kept going giving up highs on Thursday up to 12440 in March on aggressive spec based buying. At that point, the market was also very overbought with the 9 period RSI up to just over 75. Friday saw the market correct and correct aggressively all the way down to lows of 11675.

The disaggregated COT as of Nov 17 issued on Friday showed that long funds sold about 1003 lots but short funds bought back 8936 lots and we’re thinking they continued to do so through Thursday. Net/Net funds bought 7933 lots which were bought from trade (origin).

As we sit here, we expect that each day from today will show decreased volumes as interest is usually lower during this holiday week. Even with folks not travelling as much, we expect their attentions will be on family and friends.

Support around 11450, resistance near the high 12440 it would not surprise us to trade within those 2 all week long.

Remember the office is closed on Thursday and we’ll be monitoring from home on Friday though for all intents and purposes most will be closed on those days. It’s going to be tough to make movements not already planned, but we are happy to help where we can, especially as we emerge from this week, a little fatter and a little happier.

Our sincere wishes for your healthy, happy holiday.

All the best,
The Armenia Team