« back to blog

12-6-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good Monday morning to you,

A rainy, drizzly fall morning here. A little warmer than normal has the fog burning off as we head off to work with a cup of a blend that Izwandi made for us on the holidays. It’s yummy.

Another interesting week, that started off with and amazing range. Monday opened at 24100 went down to 22965 and closed at 23300. We mention this because it will be interesting to consider the commitment of traders report in the light of this day. From then on, the next two days followed with sideways consolidation and then the last 2 days of the week saw the market resume the upward bias trend, and today it continues off of a bullish Friday close.

Let’s get straight to the commitments as it tells the story of last weeks market. Monday was really big volume, probably the biggest volume of the week in the meaty part of the session. According to the report issued on Friday for trading as of Tuesday Nov 30 saw long funds sell 2203 lots to stand at 63987 lots long while short fund bought back 1274 and now stand 6249 lots short, smallest number for them in some time. Now here is the important number, trade bought a total of 6147 lots indicating they were buyers into the drop on Monday as they should have been. Origin has gotten way ahead of roaster/buyers in recent times, we’ve commented on that before. This trading was the first necessary step to stem some of that.

The game of de-certifying coffee to have it re-certified, and re-start the clock continued last
week. There are a total of 61054 pending grading a good amount of that is re-tenders, and what’s interesting is, after the 2 main decerts, a large number of the graded coffee has failed. It’s likely the holder of this coffee isn’t worried as this coffee still represents value, as does any that doesn’t have to be shipped. Spot coffee avoids most of the logistics nightmares and thus has value to the
market. Those troubles continue and we know you’re probably as tired of hearing about it as we are of dealing with it.

The Brazilian Real has been volatile this morning trading at 5.67786 while the Colombia Peso is 3949. Market is again nearing overbought levels at this morning’s highs. 25000 seems to ramp up selling as

it’s an emotional number more than a technical one. We anticipate another “interesting” week.

We’re offering some coffees at a discount as we try to lower our year-end inventory. Please talk with your trader if we can help you with RFA Brazil, RFA Colombia and regular Supremo, some past crop Tarrazu, we have a few bags of FTO Colombia and Guatemala on this list, some natural Sidamo Gr 4 as well as some FTO Mandhelings from Keteira that will ship this month, as well as some Vietnam.

All the best,
The Armenia Team