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11-8-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Monday.

There is an old saying that coffee eats like a bird and poops like an elephant. We saw proof again of it last week.

The C took small steps in small ranges to move higher, once again over 210 where it found good origin selling yet again. Friday saw a confluence of bad news for Commodities in general and coffee in particular as the dollar got stronger on good jobs numbers and perhaps falling inflation.
This had investors cashing out of commodities and coffee was no exception. Coffee broke though underlying support and again now we’re challenging the 20000 support where there is good options open interest with Dec option expiry this coming Friday, watch that level as we’ll probably break that number on both sides.

Coffee volumes were reflected in the COT issued on Friday Nov 5 for trading as of Tuesday Nov 2nd. Long funds actually sold 358 lots to be 62959 lots long while short funds also sold a small 284 lots to be 11364 lots short. Trade bought about 2400 lots. We expect next week’s numbers will be similar barring something major along the way.

C stocks stood at 1,849,501 continuing to fall even with some more coffee added by passing
grading. Pending grading pile now stands at just 12,051 bags. The total was down for the week 30363 most of that was Brazils that now stand under 1 million at 958029 of which 723053 are in Antwerp.

Not to sound like a “broken record” (do folks even understand that idea any more?), but logistics are still painful in every leg of the import and delivery cycle.

We have a nice FTO Guatemala just arrived into Continental, with some RFA Sidamo now arrived but not yet stripped. We have some Bali Kintamani that just went afloat

Can we be of help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team