Happy Monday. We’ve had an absolutely wonderful weekend here in the Northeast. Wonderfully temperate weather throughout the area, gave us a chance to head back outside even during this pandemic. Winter will be here soon enough, but a blast of classic Autumn weather made us really happy.
The market endured a bunch more spec based selling this week, with trade once again, the best buyer. The disaggregated COT issued on Friday for trading as of Tuesday, November 3rd showed spec long 36,128 (down 2318), short 31,221 (up 4596) for a total net long on 4907 lots net/net. This means that once again spec sold a total of 6914 lots. Interesting that the short sellers sped up over the longs for the first time in a while. Since Tuesday the market has worked higher, mostly on weather related news. Hurricane/Tropical Storm ETA caused great damage in Central America. We’d like to share some information from our friends of EFICO Central America whom we work closely with:
• Landslides reported in many areas of the country. 50 casualties reported.
• The Izabal region (ports Santo Tomas and Puerto Barrios) is flooded
• Constant rains for the past 3 days.
• The government has declared the State of Calamity in the country
• Guatemala City is OK, we are all safe.
• Major flooding on the Atlantic Coast. 300,000 people affected and some are under evacuation. 20 casualties reported.
• Massive destruction of roads and bridges
• San Pedro Sula (the largest city in the country) is currently seeing the largest flooding they have ever seen. The airport is under water. They expect the worse to happen during the night, the rivers keep on rising.
• The areas affected in San Pedro Sula are the lower areas, near the airport
• 10,000 Ha of crops will be lost in the Sula valley (bananas, sugar cane, oil palm trees)
• The area where coffee exporters is located is not affected by the flooding
• Some coffee areas will have difficulties in transporting the beans to the mills when the harvest starts in a few weeks
• The infrastructure is affected (roads, bridges)
• Many people lost their homes on the Atlantic Coast (Puerto Cabezas, Bilwi)
• The storm has drenched the coffee areas of Jinotega, Matagalpa and Nueva Segovia, but no losses are reported
• Infrastructure problems
• Land slides
• The Salvadorean Coffee authorities predict a high incidence of fungus disease in coffee farms due to the high humidity.
Additionally, rains still haven’t returned to Brazil in sufficient quantity to allay fears there as well.
The market remains rangebound Bulls need a close above 11000 in Dec to make them happy, bears need a break of the recent lows down near 10200.
Our thoughts and prayers are with our friends across Central America. Having lived through these storms recently ourselves, we know the days after the storm leaves can be equally as devastating.
We’re here to help if we can. Please check out the offer list that comes with this report and let us know if there is anything you’d like a sample of, or if there is anything you don’t see there that we can help you with!
All the best,
The Armenia Team