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12-13-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Happy Monday to all,

There’s a great song from the 60’s that starts “what goes up, must come down…” and that’s the coffee market last week. In an almost mirror move to the week before the market started high and nearly ever day was lower that the day before.

Tuesday saw the market try to make a move over 250.00, moving to a high of 252.35 only to be rebuffed and started on its trip lower ending the week with a 231.95 low. Funds were sellers after the failure to hold the highs. Trade was the best buyer on the way down. The market had been a bit “overbought” at the highs had fully corrected by the end of the week on both a Fibonacci and RSI level.

COT issued on Friday Dec 10 for trading as of Tuesday Dec 7 showed large funds sold 1536 lots to stand 62451 lots long and short funds sold 134 lots to stand 6383 lots short. Trade bought just under 6000 lots and in the last 2 weeks were very aggressive buyers.

In the news Brazil exports dropped 38.6% in November and Colombia dropped 11%. Both origins cited the lack of available shipping as a large contributor to the inability to ship coffee. No surprise to those of us who are daily fighting in both of these origins for available containers. Logistics problems exist now in most origins we trade with. Rates continue to rise.

There have been no notices issued in Dec futures as spot lots have value, again as they don’t have to be shipped they are already here. ICE warehouse stocks ended the week at 1,605,639 of which 762,072 bags were Brazils of which 595,656 were in Antwerp.

Note our holiday schedule:

We are closed on the following days: Friday Dec 24
Monday Dec 27
Friday Dec 31

Monday Jan 3
Please make your plans around those days.

All the best,
The Armenia Team