« back to blog

12-19-2022 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Monday.

Are you all footballed out after this weekend? All of the American football games combined with the big World Cup Final – and oh by the way what a thrilling game that was. Congratulations to all of the Argentine players and fans. The two teams played their hearts out, in what some are calling the best final ever. One had to win. This time it was Argentina.

An interesting week that saw the market work higher until it didn’t. Fueled mainly by fund buying the market worked higher until Friday when it gave a large chunk of its gains back. Commitment of traders report issued Dec 16 for trading as of the 13th said long fund bought 3606 lots to stand 26412 lots long while short fund also bought, this time 804 lots to stand 46902 lots short, still a very big number.

Physical trade still mostly quiet with both Brazil and Colombia not offering aggressively.

Stocks in warehouse in the USA was released by the Green Coffee Association for the month of November at 6.390 million bags, up 70,267. This was considered a bit of a surprise and perhaps contributed to the sell off on Friday. ICE stocks continued to climb, now standing at 753,981 with 310,288 bags pending grading. There were a total of 1672 notices issued against the December 2022 contract.

Conabraiseditsestimateforits2022cropto50.9millionbagsupfrom47.7in2021. Conabcited productivity and area planted for the increase.

Fridays trading was an “outside day” and should have led to more selling today. We got that early but there seems to be support near the lows at least for the moment. Let’s see. If it continues to fall the next stop should be the recent lows of 15455. 17380 is the overhead resistance right now. If the market can get through that, it could work a fair bit higher as we would expect that large amount of spec shorts to worry about the market from there.

How can we be of assistance today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team