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12-21-20 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning,

After a long time, we heard this song over the weekend and the first verse seems so appropriate, we’re going to share. Thanks to The Who for some great lyrics:

“I’ve got a feeling twenty one
Is going to be a good year.
Especially if you and me
See it in together”

We said it at Christmas time, and we’ll repeat it now as it’s apropos, we thank you so much for your friendship and support. Especially during a year like this one that is about to end. 2020 was filled with challenges many of which we saw through together. We wish all of our friends a happy holiday time here as 2020 comes to a close. We got a feeling ’21 is going to be a good year!

The market found support throughout the week, mostly spec based, and we finally got through 12500 resistance and the market moved smartly to its Wednesday high 12860. By then, the market’s momentum was slowed in more typical holiday based volumes. The market was helped by a rather
weak dollar. Rains continued in the Brazil coffee belt, as did more concerns that the “cake is already baked”, and that troubles are already fixed into the next crop.

Technically 13000 overhead resistance and support at 12100, which was broken early but the market is back above as we write this. From there 11450 is the next support underneath.

The COT issued Friday Dec 18th for trading as of Tuesday Dec 15 showed that funds were long 36,473 lots (up 2107) and short 17,940 lots (down 2292) meaning funds bought about 4399 lots in total, with probably a few more on Wednesday at least.

Total certified warehouse stocks continued to climb for the week (now 1,370,191) as Brazil’s continue to climb now at 312,021.

Meantime on the 15th, GCA reported stocks in all hands in the USA down 328,022 to it’s lowest level since November 2015 at 5,890,106 bags.

There are still enough believers that the next crop is already compromised we think they will be buyers on dips like we saw this morning. Mind the technical for now.

Remember Christmas is this Friday and for all intents and purposes we expect Thursday to be virtually closed as well, and next Friday is New Years Day which will also see most folks closed. It’s going to be hard to coordinate logistics (it’s already hard without all of those challenges) right now. Let us help you if we can.

Wishes for a Merry Christmas and a very Happy 2021 to you all.

All the best,
The Armenia Team