Good morning/happy Monday,

After a good snow scare here in the Northeast, we’ve come back to more traditional Fall weather. A little chilly. Good coffee drinking weather. Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

One thing about the coffee market. When things get quiet, and volumes shrink a bit, it usually is a bearish sign for the market and that’s what we saw last week. Slipping down small steps until the end of the week the market crashed through support at 110.25 and down it went. Friday’s low of 107.25 marked a low point for this leg and a continuation of the downtrend since the 125.00+ high of the corrective move from the lows under 100.00. As we went home on Friday it looked for all the world like
we’re headed back to the lows, though we got a little macro break this morning and the market moved back above 110.00 – we’d need a strong close above to change the momentum.

In the news last week, the USDA gave its prediction of the Colombian 2018/19 crop of 14.30 million bags, up from the 13.8 million bags it says Colombia produced in 2017/18. They expect Colombia will export 13.30 million bags from this crop.

Shipping from Brazil still difficult, hard to get confirmed vessel bookings even over 30 days out. In Colombia, a general trucker strike still does not seem to have affected the movement of coffee, yet. We have a box or two of Colombia Supremo 17/18 that arrived on the 29th, not stripped into warehouse yet.

There are also now 110 bags of Supremo Screen 18 afloat to New Jersey. A fresh box of Sumatra is now afloat with an ETA of just after Christmas, 12/28, also for NJ. We’ve purchased a box of FTO Sumatra, waiting on the pre-shipment sample which we hope to have soon.

We’re looking forward to the annual Green Coffee Association party at the Downtown Association this Friday. If you’re coming please look for us, we’ll have a large group attending.

The Armenia Team