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2-6-2023 Armenia Coffee Report

Happy Monday to all,

It was an interesting week that was last week. Monday saw the market explode to the upside and test that lower 180’s resistance that we had mentioned the week before. Tuesday and Wednesday we saw additional tests of this resistance and eventually the market just gave up. The 9 day RSI had moved forcefully through 70’s indicating over bought and so the market decided it was time for a correction, moving down to the lower 170’s in March.

The front switch has traded 50 pts either side of even the main effect being it’s discouraging folks still from buying any more than they really need. The Brazilian Real had come under 5 last week and that further discouraged sales. However, the Colombia Peso was weak and diffs from Colombia got a little more aggressive for shipments Mar and April. They stand at 5.17047 for the Real and 4713 for the Peso.

We won’t have the commitment report until this afternoon. We’re not sure what we’ll see. The early part of the week was probably short fund cover buying but we don’t get the feeling it was that big.

ICE warehouse stocks stood at 872,853 with 36,192 pending grading. Pass rate was a little better last week.

Uganda’s coffee exports fell 17% in 2022. Exports fell to 5.63 million bags from 6.77 the year before. Drought was blamed for the lower and shorter harvest season.

Futures bounced back last week and again this morning from the 17000 support. 184.75 remains resistance above. As of this morning we are stuck in the middle again.

We have some fresh Supremos that just landed and are in the warehouse. How can we help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team