It’s a cold and rainy Monday today. Some snow is not ruled out before the day is done. Winter still reminding us she’s not done yet, in spite of the buds on the trees. After “springing forward” over the weekend, we’re ready for the Spring to come soon. Pass the light roast and let’s go!
Serial options kept the market’s attention last week and we played around the 17500 level, settling just above that level on Friday. Origin continues to be a seller more Colombia than Brazil.
Colombia’s production for Feb 2023 reported at 1.02 million bags, about 10% higher than 2022’s Feb at 928,000 bags. Total for the coffee year is now 4.82 million bags down from 5.34 a year before. Feb exports were 928,000 bags for the month and 4.6 million for the coffee year, down 6% and 13% respectively.
Brazil’s coffee exports were down to 2.4 million bags in Feb 2023 down 33.3% from 2022 according to Cecafe. The lower exports were blamed on dwindling stocks ahead of the new crop that will come in a few months.
Brazil’s Real is a little weaker than recent at 5.27494 while the Colombian Peso is not much changed at 4716.7
COT issued on Friday is still of the delayed variety. It’s as of Feb 21, 2023 and shows long fund 25,121 lots long up 2654 lots. Short fund was 28,650 down 4715 lots. Offset to all of this was trade who sold about 8200 lots. People we trust are estimating the long and short fund are now about equal. What’s been interesting since we’ve got the numbers back is how far behind roasters are falling behind now.
From where we sit, the market is still stuck in a range from 17000 to 19000. We’re buyers if the market dips down near that 17000 support as the closer of the two numbers right now.
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All the best,
The Armenia Team