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3-15-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good day,

It’s a chilly morning here in the Northeast. We’re lucky, the storm that dropped 4 feet of snow on Wyoming and 2 feet on Denver, will be just rain by the time it gets here. Finally, a break! We’re hoping it’s a sign of things to come.

Meantime we’re drinking a 100% Colombian this morning. Perfect to get us going on the first workday after “spring forward”.

The roller coaster continued last week. Not nearly the severity of the fast move up, or the just as quick correction, but the market resumed it’s move upwards.

The disaggregated COT was released on Friday the 12th for trading as of Tuesday Mar 9th and it finally showed what we expected to see.

Fund longs sold just under 4000 lots (3991) to 45,726 total while shorts added 2828 lots to 16,387 total. This picture window is exactly the time funds lightened their longs as shorts got a bit more aggressive, with net/net selling of 6819 lots for the period. The next 3 days were likely buying again, and we’ll see that reflected in next week’s report.

The chart grew more neutral for us with the quicker average moving down over the slower one, the market will gain direction from trading the first few days of this week for us. A very large influencer of the trading last 2 weeks has been the Brazilian real. Range extended from 5.70 out to 5.90 and back to 5.50 by the end of the week, standing this morning at 5.61.

ICE warehouse stocks stand at 1,836,409 with Brazils now 847,434 bags of it.

Container shortages not just in Asia any more we’ve seen now multiple stories from many different product lines saying how changing global trade in the pandemic has affected shipping and the movement of containers around the world. Brazil is the latest place where we’ve had a little trouble
lining up containers to ship with, not as bad as Asia, yet.

We’ve had a fresh box of RFA Colombia go into Continental just this morning. Let us know if you’d like to see the sample. Please have a look at the offer list that accompanies this report to see what coffees we’re showcasing today.

All the best,
The Armenia Tea