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3-20-2023 Armenia Coffee Report

Happy Monday,

The official start of Spring, this morning is still a little chilly here. Pass me the warm cup of Colombian I just brewed please. A friend brought me a chocolate croissant this morning. I’m in heaven.

Very interesting week saw the market as a bit of a roller coaster. Talk of bank troubles around the world had all markets reacting. Coffee ran from support down around 171 to 181 and a bit higher, where it’s had trouble recently extending, and back to the center of the range at the COB Friday, and here we are as we write this.

ICE Stocks continue to be value, especially the Brazil and the buyers are taking delivery of them. Total currently 787,375 bags with just 1135 pending grading.

The Brazilian Real out where it was last week at 5.27883 while the Colombian Peso is weaker at
4842.1. Colombia remains offering quantities of coffee while Brazil is only showing positions in the new crop starting from August.

We’re closer to date on the Commitment of Traders report. Issued Friday for trading as of Mar 7 its just about as we said last week with long fund long 24,222 lots down 3261 and short funds 24,761 lots down 2165 lots so they’re just about even though they will both trade their positions separately and to their own devices so while it looks like it’s square, it’s anything but. Trade was a big player in that week buying 4709 lots on the long side and selling almost as many 3923 on the short side. Roasters are still behind and would likely be supportive to any dips that come along.

We see the market trading in the same range 170-190 with shorter term upside resistance just over 180 near term.

We have a fresh split box of Excelso and Supremo arriving on Thursday. The fresh Colombians have been really nice and go quickly.

How can we be of help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team