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3-27-2023 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Monday to all,

We have that Spring chilliness we are known for here in the Northeast. It’s nice to wake up to. We had a nice Colombia on the cupping table last week, Izwandi kept a bit for us to have in the mornings. Yum.

A mostly sideways week saw the market go as low as 173+ and as high as 182. Fund buying at the lows, origin selling at the highs is a repeat of recent trading. This morning we’ve had a bit of a breakout up to 18400 in the May.

Macro economics still playing an outsized roll in all markets with inflation and central banks attempts to contain it a bit dampened now by recent bank failures in the USA and Europe. The Brazilian Real has held its own against the dollar trading this morning at 5.22950 and the Colombia Peso is a little stronger at 4752.5 as we write this.

We’re now caught up to date on the Commitments report. Issued on Friday Mar 24 for trading as of Tuesday Mar 21 long fund was long 25,302 lots up 3152 lots short funds were 21,279 down 3398
lots. Commercial side saw trade sell about 3900 lots in total. The rest of the selling was Index traders and non-reportable with more action than we are used to from both of them.

ICE warehouse stocks have slowed down their recent withdrawals. Total of 747,578 bags with only 1135 pending grading at this time.

We’re still in that larger range, 170-190 just right now we’re playing in the upper end. The 200 day moving average is now catching up with where the market is trading at the level of 188.95, and that could be significant on a break. We’re sellers if the market goes much higher daring it to break 190.

We have fresh Colombia and Honduras FTO just arrived the Colombia is still at the pier, the Honduras is at Continental.

How can we be of help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team