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4-05-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning,

Happy crisp Spring Monday morning to you. We’ve got 100% Colombian coffee in the pot here this morning, the richest most aromatic…

That’s what happens when you let your friend “Juan” write the first paragraph. 😁

The market tumbled again last week and if it wasn’t for aggressive roaster based buying, we would have broken the 200 day moving average. As it stood, we held that level for now, though we’re still close enough to break through. As we expected the COT showed that funds we aggressive follow through sellers. The disaggregated COT issued on Friday for trading as of Tuesday March 30th saw the funds sell a total of 9085 lots till Tuesday, and again we’re expecting the next report will show they did more of the same since last Tuesday. Breaking down the long funds are now 39,400 lots long (down 3827 lots) while fund shorts are now 29,775 (up 5258 lots), and a large majority of the short was added as the market was making these new lows every day. A reminder London is celebrating Easter Monday, and is closed today as are most major European markets.

The RSI is 35.27 as we write this which means the funds can sell more before we’re oversold.

ICE stocks total 1,855,075 bags of which Brazils are 893,424 bags, and the vast majority of those are in Antwerp (689,817 bags). The Brazil Real is currently at 5.6738 and the Colombian Peso 3654.8

The Evergreen vessel blocking the Suez Canal was finally moved and we heard over the weekend that the backlog of ships built up as the vessel was blocking, was finally cleared by Sunday. Good news.

The market is still under pressure with options expiring at the end of this week. In order for the market to be more constructive, it will probably take a few days of consolidation before that could happen. There are probably decent size stops at the 200 day moving average, currently just over 12000.

We have some nice RFA Colombia just into Continental. In terms of fresh lots coming quickly now we have FTO Honduras and FTO Guatemala arriving next week. A really nice RFA Honduras (at least the PSS was great) also arriving next week. We have a Mogiana 2/3 Screen 17/18 arriving tomorrow and a Vietnam Wet Polished Robusta arriving on
the 10th. If any of these tickle your fancy please let us know so we can arrange a sample if you so desire.

Finally we’ll end on a happy note with a link we read during the week last week: https://www.fooddive.com/news/drinking-coffee-before-afternoon-exercise-burns-more-fat-study-says/597694/

All the best,
The Armenia Team