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4-19-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Monday to all.

The market continued it’s move higher for most of the week, with a correction late Friday that gave almost half back. Fund buying was the tone of the week again this week, with roasters happy and not chasing the buy side. Origin were the sellers of note.

The COT issued on Friday for trading as of Tuesday April 13th showed long funds adding 1192 lots (now 38112 lots long), and short funds bought back 4570 lots to stand at 28083 lots short. Trade (origin) were the sellers having sold a total of 6253 lots.

The Brazilian Real starts the week at 5.5797 with a range last week from 5.50 to 5.75 more or less. The Colombian Peso 3603.5.

ICE stocks ended the week at 1,883,915 with Brazils 930,330 bags in total.

From our point of view, we’re bullish but cautious. Currently the marketis trading below the 21 day moving average and the RSI is above 50. We like the market to make a continued run higher but worry that a correction might occur first. Truly a hedged statement if there ever was one. 😁

Origin offers still showing narrowing against the terminal market especially in Brazil and Colombia. Quality coffee is tough to come by and dearly priced. There are still major shipping problems in Asia, and at least one major shipper in Brazil is complaining about container availability.

Some nice FTO Honduras from our friends at BSR are in but not yet stripped by Continental. We’ve got some very nice RFA Colombia in the warehouse now, just arrived. RFA Honduras, and Vietnam robusta also in, not yet released.

If we can be of help, please let us know

All the best,
The Armenia Team