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4-24-2023 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning happy Monday,

Everything here is lush green, trees are full, flowers in bloom. Just enough morning chill in the air to need a hot cup this morning. We’re having a bit of the Ethiopian Yirga Organic Dumerso. Speaking of Dumerso, it was so wonderful to see our good friends from Ethiopia at the SCA convention just concluded. We met also with our friends at BSR in Honduras, Keteira in Indonesia, CoopeTarrazu in Costa Rica, so many good friendships we have made over the years.

The market corrected a bit after the explosive move high of the week before. The COT evidenced what we expected – that up to Tuesday, there was good fund buying in the market with origin taking advantage of the higher prices to sell and fix. The dollar also corrected some and was a little stronger against the Real and the Peso, also allowing origin to sell. This morning the Real is 5.07254 and the Peso is 4511.7

COT issued Friday April 21 for trading as of Tuesday April 18 showed long funds buying 8638 lots to be 36,785 lots long. Short fund bought 717 lots to be 16,523 lots short. Trade sold close to 12,000 lots net/net. Index traders were small buyers of about 1800 lots.

ICE warehouse stocks stood at 699,508 bags down again this week. There is still nothing pending grading at this time.

There have been a total of 269 notices issued versus the May contract as of Friday.

The market corrected the overbought RSI and we have again room to work higher, and so far this morning, that’s what we’re doing. 2 averages we like to watch for market direction are sitting in the 18500 level more or less (the 200 day and the 21 day moving averages that is). We’d expect good support down there and so far the market is not showing us any inclination to try support down
there. 19350 is a closer support though not as strong. We’d view that as the level to step back and wait and see if the market really wants to test the more important numbers below on a break there.

Here are some pictures of our meetings this weekend at SCA: How can we be of help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team