« back to blog

5-10-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good Monday morning to you,

It’s a chilly rainy Monday here in the northeast and we’re enjoying a hot cup of Bali Kintamani today. It’s the last of what we had available, and it’s now sold out for the last crop, new crop will hopefully ship in July. We are working on it!

Another very interesting week in the C. Monday and Tuesday were sideways and then came a literal explosion on Wednesday as the market went from a low of 14050 to a high of 15040 and we closed near 10 cents higher. Traders tried to remember when the last time we saw action like that, most think it was years since we’ve seen it. On Thursday the market made it’s high for the move, so far, to 15540 and Friday saw the market retrace some, reducing the overbought situation some. Funds were again the best buyers. The disaggregated COT issued on Friday for trading as of Tuesday May 4th showed long funds were long 55794 lots (up 4533 lots) and short funds sold a bit now 16629 (up 651), so net/net funds bought about 3882 lots and most likely bought much more on Wednesday. Origin was the best seller this time.

NYC stocks stood at 1,993,853 and this week saw Brazils go over the one million mark, standing at 1,047,800 as of Friday. The Brazil Real had a good week last week, showing strength to about 5.25 by the end of the week and this morning stands at 5.2252. The Colombia Peso stands at 3735.2.

Unrest in Colombia is delaying shipments. What started as anger over tax hikes has changed into major demonstrations in condemnation of the government there, and these clashes with authorities has turned violent. Shippers are telling us truckers are not willing to be on the roads right now. Difficulty to ship from Asia remains with Sumatra being nigh on impossible at the moment. Additionally, there has been good buying in the interior there and the fly crop is quickly selling. It’s an interesting dichotomy.

Known analysts were turning to hyperbole to describe where the market could be headed in this run. Funds are very long but they are not as resistant as they used to be about being a large percentage of the open interest. There are many bullish option plays also assisting the move higher recently with volatility headed higher and higher. Traders are likely waiting on a bit more of a correction before buying again.

Just into warehouse this morning are some nice RFA Honduras SHG from our favorite supplier Beneficio Santa Rosa. We’ve already sold nearly half the container so if you’re interested, please talk to your trader. We have some very nice RFA Colombia just recently arrived. We’ll have a few bags of FTO Guat and RFA Guat arriving May 19th. Please let us know if we can help you today!

All the best,
The Armenia Team