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5-17-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good Monday and happy Monday to you,

With the new guidance from the CDC, the USA continues to re-open and folks start to return to some semblance of their normal lives. The weather in the Northeast really starting to change for the better, we have a typical Spring day here with bright sunshine, light breeze, and a cup of SHG Honduras from our friends at BSR.

Lots of profit-taking, consolidation after the wild end to the previous week, which included a 10 cent higher day. At the end of that week the market was a bit over-bought and funds have been lightening up ever since. We expected the COT to show funds added longs, but the two early days of the week were down, and that made the numbers a little lower than we were expecting. The report issued Friday the 14th for trading as of Tuesday the 11th showed long funds added 2193 lots and stand at 57,987 lots a very big number. Fund shorts also added a smaller amount 422 lots to stand at 17,051 lots short.

Where we stand as we’re writing this, we’ve sold back about 50% of the wild Thursday and Friday trading that saw the market go from 140.50 to 155.40. It feels like a little more consolidation is due and then we’d like to buy the market. There are still structural problems with the market that haven’t been addressed fully. We continue to have real troubles shipping coffee from all over, still Asia, but now Colombia has come to a complete stand-still with the civil unrest completely tying up movement from the mills to the ports. Shipments continue to be rolled forward as ships completely avoid Colombia as well right now, and now we are having troubles getting coffee out of Brazil as well.

ICE stocks stand at 2,018,710 with 1,974,656 bags of Brazils of which 836,824 are in Antwerp and 194,348 are in Hamburg/Bremen.

We’re rapidly working through our fresh delivery of Brazil 17/18. We’ll have some Brazil RFA in the first week of June now.

How can we help you today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team