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6-6-2022 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning,

It’s a crisp morning here in the Northeast. Hot coffee (medium roast Colombia) to start for sure but we’re thinking of a cold brew for the afternoon where we’ll get close to summer temperatures here. It’s a nice week to come to visit us in the Northeast. We’ll be attending the GCA annual outing for the afternoon session, please look for Janis or Joe if you’re coming to the event.

Another interesting week. What started the run from the lows was weather, but we’ve maintained the market’s nearness to the highs without more weather related activity. Macro discussion on inflation, strength of the dollar and interest rates here in the States has the major market’s attention and is affecting commodities as a whole. Don’t forget supply chain, supply chain, supply chain as if the market would let you. Last week we saw a new high for this run and not since February had we seen prices higher.

Technicians were feeling the market was overbought into the 240 highs in July last week and did get a move down to 231.45 to correct the move, some. After 2 weeks of playing below the very watched 200 day moving average, we’ve left that down around 221.00 now it would take a big drop to get it back down there.

Commitment of trader’s report showed funds good buyers for the period. Large funds bought 4244 lots to move back to 35,712 lots long and shorts continued coverage buying 2583 lots to be only 3,047 lots short. Trade was by far and away the best seller over 8000 lots.

There was a good drawdown of ICE stocks last week now standing at 1,023,477 bags with 7800 bags pending grading for the moment.

Colombian coffee remains difficult to source at better differentials. We should be well into the Mitaca push but coffee remains difficult to come by. No one is offering aggressively.

Even as the market is working higher, there’s no aggressive push to sell washed mild coffee. Please let us know if we can be of help.

All the best,
The Armenia Team