« back to blog

6-5-2023 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy Monday,

It’s another beautiful Spring Day here in the Northeast. Come and visit. Coffee’s on us.

Interesting “short” week with the Monday Memorial Day holiday in the mix. The market based, tried higher and, gave much of it back on Friday. The commitment of traders report was very much in line with our expectations. Macro factors such as the agreement on the debt ceiling weakened the dollar a bit.

The commitment of traders report issued on Friday for trading as of Tuesday May 30th evidenced much as we expected with long funds selling 4103 lots to go 29,672 lots long while short funds added 2798 lots to now be 21,676 lots short. So a total of 6901 lots of selling. Roasters/trade were the best buyers also as expected buying 10,454 lots in total, something they needed to do.

ICE stocks continued to fall and are at the lowest point of the year now at 573,508 bags. There continues to be no coffee pending grading at this time.

The Brazilian Real is stronger on the week standing at 4.94819 as we write and the Colombian Peso at 4351 continuing it’s strength as well.

Tanzania’s coffee harvest pushed to an all time high of about 81,500 tons, the previous high in 2020/21 was 72,000 tons. The country earned 231 million US dollars as compared with 206.23 in 2021/22. The Tanzania Coffee Board attributed mobilization and promoting cultivation, including distribution of coffee seedlings as a reason for the increase. Last season 9.3 million seedlings were distributed, and they hoped to distribute 11 million in the coming crop.

In recent days the market has broken key support levels, moved back above them and continues now to trade tenuously around them. 18000 again seems to be some support to the market this
morning. There are some option’s related reasons why the market could work higher this week. We like buying the market here. We would buy the market scale down to sell as the market approaches 19000 and higher.

We have some FTO Honduras, Peru and Colombia we can show you, all recent or about to be recent arrivals. How can we be of help today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team