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7-12-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good morning and happy summer Monday to all.

A very interesting short week last week saw the market basically set the range for the week on Tuesday, and then trade inside the range the rest of the week. There was notable fund selling throughout combined with roaster based buying again, we’ll go over those numbers in a moment.

On the macro, the Brazilian Real fell hard against an overall strong dollar (on the back of some strong economic numbers) last week moving back over 5 and right now is at 5.25845 but on Friday had dropped as far as over 5.5000. The Colombian Peso is at 3826.8.

The commitment of traders report issued Friday for trading as of Tuesday July 6th was very interesting. Long funds liquidated 3046 lots to finish the period at a still large 56,383 lots while short funds added a big 4,307 lots to finish at 25,770 lots short. Trade bought 9341 lots in total, a big showing.

ICE warehouse stocks ended the week at 2,169,958 just off the highs of the year with Brazil still 1,151,066 bags. There are 32,189 bags pending – that number has softened quite a bit over the last few weeks.

Technically speaking the longs would like to see a close over 15500 to get some momentum back. Shorts want a close below the recent low 14810 to gain momentum.

We have a nice new container of RFA Brazil 2/3 MTGB SS FC in Continental recently along with some very nice RFA SHB Guatemala EP and some RFA SHG Honduras EP all in Continental we could send out immediate samples. We have a container of RFA Ethiopian Sidamo that is expected to arrive on the 19th if all goes to plan. We have some Colombian EP 10 afloat to NY due on the 15th, we’d suggest talking to your trader if you’re interested in some as fresh Excelso keeps selling out fast once they arrive.

We’d love to help you if we can!

All the best,
The Armenia Team