Happy Monday
We have a new song for you this week, from a group named Blood, Sweat and Tears it’s called spinning wheel and you probably know it but it goes “What goes up must come down. Spinnin’ wheel got to go ‘round. Talking ‘bout your troubles it’s a crying sin. Ride a painted pony let the spinning wheel spin…”
This week was again, full of volatility but only on the first and last business day. Monday started the week with a “bang” and off we went, with a range of 202.00 – 216.40 (closing at 215.20) and remember when we tell you the numbers that this buying is in this weeks COT. The next couple of days, Tuesday and Wednesday were relatively calm and we made the high to 218.60, Thursday was what we call an inside day just meandering, not doing much of anything till the floor was taken away and we gave most of the rally back from 214.40 to 205.50 on Friday.
If anything, it was more of that when it’s a coffee market it goes up and when it’s part of all the markets in the world, it comes down. At least it seems so to us.
Currency volatility was also a factor and we’re starting the week, weak for both the Brazilian Real (5.45147) and the Colombian Peso (4463) as the dollar remains strong on the back of the Fed raising interest rates and who is not expected to be done yet.
OK here are the COT numbers we were mentioning earlier. Long fund sold 1967 lots to be 47,036 lots long. Yes, sold 1967 in a week where Monday had a 14 cent delta lows to highs and which had to have some long fund participation. The number would have been a much bigger number sold without
it. Interesting. Short fund sold 4362 lots to be 19,057 lots short. It shows the biggest buyers were trade as expected, but that was into the selling the end of the week prior which is included in this report, and we’ll remind you the Sept went down to 194.60.
ICE stocks were down again this week at 705,727 – ICE says it’s the lowest this year. There is no coffee pending grading.
The chart is really hard to read right here. You can make a case for it to try the recent lows again (around 195.00) or it could just consolidate (our best guess) or it could continue to play the volatility game here and move in ways we don’t see coming. As I usually remind you, “living in interesting times” is considered a curse in the Chinese culture.
We have some nice fresh milds, we are selling quickly through the FTO Sumatra “womens” Ketiera.
All the best,
The Armenia Team