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8-1-2022 Armenia Coffee Report

Happy Monday

It’s a bit overcast here in the Northeast with summer weather again expected, high temperatures and high humidity. We’ve got the coffee, you bring the ice cubes…

Well, another big range for the week (204.20-221.40) here in the coffee market with the same, “let’s go up early and then just putter”. At least the last Friday didn’t see a big volatility day down giving back the entire week’s gains.

The Brazilian Real and the Colombia Peso both got stronger as the week went by and we sit this morning at 5.13377 and 4296.2 which should take some pressure off of the C this morning.

Talk about rains and crop patterns emerging for both Colombia and Brazil with many now saying both crops will be negatively impacted by recent rain patterns in both countries. In Colombia – word comes that the Mitaca is nearly complete. That season has come and gone with no real impact on differentials, in fact Colombian coffee diffs at the recent highs for the year right now with nothing to do but wait on the new crop.

Speaking of weather, July is now done and there were zero frost concerns in Brazil and none on the horizon. A very mild winter indeed.

ICE stocks stand at 700,050 the lowest in a long time. Nothing pending grading at this time.

COT showed long fund sold a mere 240 lots to end 31,122 lots long while short funds bought 1596 lots to end 11,157 lots short. Trade was a net seller of just under 1000 lots.

We’ve moved closer to the 200 day moving average at just over 225.00, so we’ll make that the next resistance line. Support down around the 210 line then the recent lows at 194.

We have a really nice FTO Honduras that just came into the warehouse, why not ask for a sample?

All the best,
The Armenia Team