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8-23-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Good Monday,

It was a batten down the hatches kind of weekend here in the Northeast with storm Henri playing havoc here. As far west as Pennsylvania saw the rain bands and the closer to the Atlantic you got the more rain and wind we saw. Early reports that some areas would see more than 10 inches of rain and accompanying high winds. Trees down. Power out. Standing water everywhere. So far, so good for us. We’re in the office ready to help if we can. Please be patient as we expect this weather will prompt some delays in arrivals, at the warehouse, and on the roads.

Another interesting week saw the market again under pressure and the brief move higher last week proved only corrective for Dec and once again we’re back in the mid-point of the range. Averages have solidly crossed to the downside and we’re seeing the market struggle to make much of any buying that comes to the market – there is selling waiting for it right now.

Interesting COT issued Friday for trading as of Tuesday August 17th. It showed long spec adding 2950 lots to go to 52044 lots, short spec added a small 277 lots to get to 15903. Trade sold about 3000 lots, which could have been trade houses who had lifted hedges to avoid margin calls on the way up, seeing the market stabilize and thinking it’s ok to throw shorts back out now.

Warehouse stocks on the C stood at 2,154,886 with Brazil accounting for 1,143,915 bags of which 843,864 are in Antwerp. Today is first notice day for September C and surprisingly there were no notices issued on the first day.

We still consider moves toward 17500 buying opportunities in Dec.

Notable arrivals: we have some Colombia Excelso and RFA Brazil scheduled to arrive on the 26th. We have some women’s centered FTO Sumatra arriving on the 13th of February, and we have some FTO Colombia from a women’s supported Coop there already in the warehouse. We’ll have some Vietnam Robustas arriving on the 12th of Sept.

Happy to help if we can.

All the best,
The Armenia Team