Good morning,
It’s a typical hot Summer Monday morning here in the Northeast, but we’re drinking a nice hot Honduras Organic here today. Hope you have your favorite coffee of choice as you read this.
The market really took the entire week to make a sideways, consolidative move last week after a wild frost period settled and the weather looked better as far as we can reliably see. The C was caught in a range with roaster buying as the market went lower towards 17000 and spec selling as the market would try and rally towards 18000. The mean of 17550 was most apparent throughout the week, and is again as we write this.
The COT really shows this, although its only as of Tuesday last week, it’s probably representative of the whole week and unless the market makes a move in the next two days, we think we’ll see another just like it when the next one is released. The COT issued Friday August 6 for trading as of Tuesday August 3rd showed long spec selling 1546 lots to go 51714 long, short spec buying 1196 lots to be 12281 short. Trade bought about 3320 lots.
Stocks on the C totaled 2,159,236 bags with Brazil being 1,145,541 of the total. There are 23,848 bags pending grading. The Brazil weather is expected calm without fear of frost for the next 10 days.
With the volatility really down following the frost fears, we anticipate the market will stay inside this 17000/18000 range until something comes to knock it out. Roasters are a bit behind here having watched the market rocket above 200.00 and didn’t want to chase until they were convinced they had to. Now it seems they are happy to buy around the 17000 and just a little higher level.
This market still has challenges. Shipping is as hard as it’s ever been, especially in Asian countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. Colombia is not seeing deliveries at the mills even though the strike is mostly over. Brazil has pulled in their offers for the moment not being aggressive as they try to access what is ahead for them. This morning, we heard weather reports that Guatemala and Honduras were being slammed by rains again. This will translate to volatility in the C as the market focuses on what’s important to it at the moment.
RFA is the term of the day here. We have nice fresh RFA Colombia, Brazil, Guatemala, and partial containers of Honduras and Sidamo Grade 4 all in Continental, all cup really nicely. Please see our offer list that accompanies this message and see if there’s anything there that tickles your fancy.
We’re here if you need us.
All the best,
The Armenia Team