Good morning and a good Monday morning wish for you.
Over the weekend, we passed a grim milestone for those of us who remember what it was like to be in the New York area on 9/11/2001. Twenty years later those feelings, memories of the day are as if it happened yesterday. Many of us knew someone who was lost or injured on that day. You don’t have to remind us to “never forget” that day, we never will.
Another interesting week for the coffee market here. Mostly down days with each having a lower high than the day before it. Volume was a little lighter again and it wasn’t spec who influenced the trading, nor was it trade, if was mostly algo and day traders taking advantage of the order flow to push the market lower. The disaggregated COT issued Friday Sept 10 for trading as of Sept 7 showed long spec sold 906 lots to go 52,982 lots long and short spec bought 186 lots to be a total of 14,287 lots
short. Trade net/net bought about 1300 lots, and we did note roaster support during the week into the declines under 19000.
ICE warehouse stocks totaled 2,161,747 of which 1,152,510 are Brazils and of those, 855,384 bags are in Antwerp. Number pending grading is still small at 3,200 bags. The Brazilian Real trading this morning at 5.23234 a bit weaker as is the Colombian Peso at 3831.2
There is a very interesting article on the state of shipping in the Economist yesterday
here: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/a-perfect-storm-for-container- shipping/21804500 . (Note they will ask you for your email address if you want to read it and don’t have an account already).
It’s highlighting what we’ve been saying about costs and availability, and when, if ever, we’ll see any relief at all from this. We thought it was a worthwhile recommendation for you to read and understand why it might be good for you to consider changing just how much supply you keep on hand. We are still having nightmares in Asia shipping from Vietnam and Indonesia. Brazil is becoming more difficult by the day and rates are climbing, even where there are adequate containers now.
We see support around 18000 though there is good buying reported around 18425 – which is nearly the 50% retracement of the entire move.
We have fresh RFA Brazil 2/3 arriving in the next few days. We have a women’s associated FTO Colombia in the warehouse and a women’s Sumatra Mandheling FTO arriving on the 17th. Our HB Guatemala Quetzaltenango just arrived though not yet picked up by the warehouse and we’ll have fresh Colombia Excelso arriving on the 21st and Supremo on the 23rd God willing and the creek don’t rise. We mentioned the Colombians because they have been selling quickly as they get closer to warehouse, might be a good time to talk to your trader if you can have some interest in those.
All the best,
The Armenia Team